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101.
102.
Tom Koch Kenneth Denike 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):523-531
The problem is not uncertainty—proposed here as an inevitable condition—but the chimera of certainty asserted by most contemporary
researchers. Problems of data definition, collection, and their use are reviewed in terms of spatial epidemiology and health
data with examples drawn from several areas of contemporary health research. The argument is that preconceptions limit data
modeled in a manner assuming its completeness. The result, as the West Nile Virus example seeks to demonstrate, may obscure
other patterns and limit avenues of research. 相似文献
103.
George MillwardSteve Miller Tom StallardAlan D. Aylward Nicholas Achilleos 《Icarus》2002,160(1):95-107
Recent work has been concerned with calculating the three-dimensional ion concentrations and Pedersen and Hall conductivities within the auroral region of Jupiter for varying conditions of incident electron precipitation. Using the jovian ionospheric model, we present results that show the auroral ionospheric response to changing the incoming flux of precipitating electrons (for constant initial energy) and also the response to changing the initial energy (for both constant flux and constant energy flux). The results show that, for expected energy fluxes of precipitating particles, the average auroral integrated Pedersen conductivity attains values in excess of 1 mho. In addition, it is shown that electrons with an initial energy of around 60 keV are particularly effective at generating auroral conductivity: Particles of this energy penetrate most effectively to the layer of the jovian ionosphere at which the auroral conductivity is at a maximum. 相似文献
104.
Mark E Bailey and Tom Ray give an overview of the National Astronomy Meeting in Dublin, where record numbers of astronomers went to talk, listen and network. 相似文献
105.
ABSTRACT In situ measurements of lakebed sediment erodibility were made on three sites in Hamilton Harbour, Lake Ontario, using the benthic flume Sea Carousel. Three methods of estimating the surface erosion threshold (τc(0)) from a Carousel time series were evaluated: the first method fits measures of bed strength to eroded depth (the failure envelope) and evaluates threshold as the surface intercept; the second method regresses mean erosion rate (Em) with bed shear stress and solves for the floc erosion rate (Ef) to derive the threshold for Em = Ef = 1 × 10?5 kg m?2 s?1; the third method extrapolates a regression of suspended sediment concentration (S) and fluid transmitted bed shear stress (τ0) to ambient concentrations. The first field site was undisturbed (C) and acted as a control; the second (W) was disturbed through ploughing and water injection as part of lakebed treatment, whereas the third site (OIP) was disturbed and injected with an oxidant used for remediation of contaminated sediment. The main objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the three different methods of deriving erosion threshold; (2) to compare the physical behaviour of lacustrine sediments with their marine estuarine counterparts; and (3) to examine the effects of ploughing and chemical treatment of contaminated sediment on bed stability. Five deployments of Sea Carousel were carried out at the control site. Mean erosion thresholds for the three methods were: τc(0) = 0·5 (±0·06), 0·27 (±0·01) and 0·34 (±0·03) Pa respectively. Method 1 overpredicted bed strength as it was insensitive to effects in the surface 1–2 mm, and the fit of the failure envelope was also highly subjective. Method 2 exhibited a wide scatter in the data (low correlation coefficients), and definition of the baseline erosion rate (Ef) is largely arbitrary in the literature. Method 3 yielded stable (high correlation coefficients), reproducible and objective results and is thus recommended for evaluation of the erosion threshold. The results of this method correlated well with sediment bulk density and followed the same trend as marine counterparts from widely varying sites. Mass settling rates, expressed as a decay constant, k, of S(t), were strongly related to the maximum turbidity at the onset of settling (Smax) and were also in continuity with marine counterparts. Thus, it appears that differences in salinity had little effect on mass settling rates in the examples presented, and that biological activity dominated any effects normally attributable to changes in salinity. Bedload transport of eroded aggregates (2–4 mm in diameter) took place by rolling below a mean tangential flow velocity (Uy) of 0·32 ms?1 and by saltation at higher velocities. Mass transport as bedload was a maximum at Uy = 0·4 ms?1, although bedload never exceeded 1% of the suspended load. The proportion of material moving as bedload was greatest at the onset of erosion but decreased as flow competence increased. Given the low bulk density and strength of the lakebed sediment, the presence of a bedload component is notable. Bedload transport over eroding cohesive substrates should be greater in estuaries, where both sediment density and strength are usually higher. Significant differences between the ploughed and control sites were apparent in both the erosion rate and the friction coefficient (φ), and suggest that bed recovery after disruption is rapid (< 24 h). τc(0) increased linearly with time after ploughing and recovered to the control mean value within 3 days. The friction coefficient was reduced to zero by ploughing (diagnostic of fluidization), but increased linearly with time, regaining control values within 6 days. No long‐term reduction in bed strength due to remediation was apparent. 相似文献
106.
Mechanisms for interpreting anomalous decreases in radon in ground water prior to earthquakes are examined with the help of a case study to show that radon potentially is a sensitive tracer of strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake. The 2003 Chengkung earthquake of magnitude (M) 6.8 on December 10, 2003, was the strongest earthquake near the Chengkung area in eastern Taiwan since 1951. The Antung radon-monitoring station was located 20 km from the epicenter. Approximately 65 d prior to the 2003 Chengkung earthquake, precursory changes in radon concentration in ground water were observed. Specifically, radon decreased from a background level of 780 pCi/L to a minimum of 330 pCi/L. The Antung hot spring is situated in a fractured block of tuffaceous sandstone surrounded by ductile mudstone. Given these geological conditions, we hypothesized that the dilation of brittle rock mass occurred at a rate faster than the recharge of pore water and gas saturation developed in newly created cracks preceding the earthquake. Radon partitioning into the gas phase may explain the anomalous decrease of radon precursory to the 2003 Chengkung earthquake. To support the hypothesis, vapor-liquid, two-phase radon-partitioning experiments were conducted at formation temperature (60 degrees C) using formation brine from the Antung hot spring. Experimental data indicated that the decrease in radon required a gas saturation of 10% developed in rock cracks. The observed decline in radon can be correlated with the increase in gas saturation and then with the volumetric strain change for a given fracture porosity. 相似文献
107.
108.
Rigorous equations in compact symbolic matrix notation are introduced to transform coordinates and velocities between ITRF
frames and modern GPS-based geocentric geodetic datums. The theory is general but, after neglecting higher than second-order
terms, it is shown that the equations revert to the formulation currently applied in most major continental datums. We discuss
several examples: the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD83), the European Terrestrial Reference System of 1989 (ETRS89), the Geodetic Datum of Australia of 1994 (GDA94), and the South American Geocentric Reference System (SIRGAS).
Electronic Publication 相似文献
109.
Huth Radan Mládek Richard Metelka Ladislav Sedlák Pavel Huthová Zuzana Kliegrová Stanislava Kyselý Jan Pokorná Lucie Halenka Tomáš Janoušek Martin 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2003,47(4):863-873
This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model. 相似文献
110.
An advanced method of automated seismic phase picking and exact location and magnitude determination of swarm micro-earthquakes from local network data is presented. The phase picker is applied in two steps: first, S-wave groups are identified using a polarisation detector, and then corresponding P-wave groups are searched for. The times of maximum P- and S-amplitudes are then used as starting points for the determination of accurate P- and S-arrival times. The maximum S-wave amplitudes are utilised for determining local magnitudes. The whole procedure is checked by simultaneous preliminary hypocentre location providing estimates of local magnitudes and a compatibility check of the candidate P- and S-phases. The closest station to the earthquake cluster is used as a master, and the phase search at the remaining stations is governed by the P- and S-phases identified at the master station. Thanks to the use of apriori information on the approximate position of hypocentres, the procedure is also capable of picking the individual P- and S-phases of sequences of overlapping swarm events. The performance of the procedure was tested by comparison of the automatically and interactively created catalogues of the January 1997 NW-Bohemia micro-earthquake swarm. With stations located at epicentral distances between 0 and 20 km, the difference between hypocentre coordinates obtained by automatic and interactive processing did not exceed 80 m for 86% events. All events above magnitude 0.5 were identified, and the automatically determined polarity of first P-wave motion proved to be correct in 89% of them. 相似文献